Flashback: This is what yours truly posted in a Facebook Note March 24. 2016. Even though the explanation below is rock solid, the NeverTrump crowd insisted that the RCP was the ultimate in reliability. Just a little I told you so!
By Chuck Norton, March 24, 2016.
Trump can’t beat Hillary because the polls say so! Look at the Real Clear Politics (RCP) Polling Average! It has Hillary beating Trump across five separate polls!
The way all five of these polls were done is misleading and dishonest. Why? A number of reasons, but most of all because most of the people polled are not even going to vote and have no incentive to be informed enough to do so.
How do we know that?
Because none of the five polls above are of ‘likely voters.’
Why does that matter?
Because of the Motor Voter Law, AKA the National Voter Registration Act, if you get a state ID or a driver’s license you automatically become registered to vote. Most people in fact do not vote.
NOTE: Motor Voter has lead to increased vote fraud. Because voter rolls can be checked to see who does not vote. Absentee ballots can be obtained in the names of those who do not vote and said ballot is cast for them without their knowledge.
Therefore, polls of ‘registered voters’ is only a residue better than polling ‘adults’ – read anyone who will answer the phone.
Have you ever seen Jay Leno ask random people on the street questions about politics or current events and the answers you get back are usually a total farce? The methodology used in these polls really isn’t much better.
In short, if you want to poll people who are the least informed, least likely to vote, the easiest to manipulate with leading questions and who are most likely to regurgitate the elite media narrative that they see on television, these are the people you poll.
The Fox Poll is of ‘registered voters’ – http://www.foxnews.com/politics/int…
The Bloomberg Poll is of ‘adults’ – http://assets.bwbx.io/documents/use…
The Qunniapiac Poll is of ‘registered voters’ – http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/po…
The CBS-NYT Poll is of half ‘registered voters’ and half ‘adults’ – http://www.cbsnews.com/news/donald-…
The CNN-ORC Poll is of ‘adults’ – https://www.documentcloud.org/docum…
The questions in several of the polls were leading. For example, the Quinnipiac Poll asked if Donald Trump was responsible for the violence that happened in Chicago. Of course this was after a week of the elite media and the other campaigns flooding the airwaves with the message that the violence, which was planned by Move On, BLM and other Soros backed groups was somehow all Trump’s fault, in spite of the fact that the groups admitted that they planned the violence in advance and proudly took credit for it.
This is also why at this time the other Republican candidates are doing better in these same polls vs Hillary Clinton. Ted Cruz and John Kasich are not getting pounded day after day in the elite media as Trump is. If Ted Cruz were to become the front runner the liberal elite media would assault him relentlessly driving his numbers down with those who have a short memory and simply accept and internalize the elite media narrative, most ‘likely voters’ do not fall in this category.
Lastly, it is important to keep in mind that general election polls this early are meaningless. The general election campaign has not even started and those campaign’s do move votes as Ronald Reagan polled far behind Jimmy Carter until late August and then won in a landslide.
In comparing the polls from the RCP average from 2012 to the polls in the RCP average today…..THERE IS A HUGE DIFFERENCE. In 2012 the samples were large and included large numbers of LIKELY VOTERS. You can look at them and see for yourself:
But today the RCP does not use polls of likely voters, many just poll “ADULTS”. The problem is that “”adults”” mostly do not vote and because of motor voter legislation most registered voters do not vote either. These people are the least informed of all of us. They mostly repeat the elite media spin they see on TV back to the pollster. Here is the RCP average from today:
There is only one kind of polling that is worse than polls of “adults” and that is Online Polls. When MSNBC puts up an online poll, who is most likely to respond? Democrats of course. So here is the NBC poll methodology from today’s RCP Poll:
“The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking poll was conducted online August 8 through August 14, 2016 among a national sample of 15,179 adults who say they are registered to vote.”
In short, its a joke.