It is just a fact of journalism today that most polls are designed to make news, create drama, conflict and partisan bias. They are not designed to reflect the mood of the nation properly and not designed to be honest.
If they reported that the race is going to be a blowout are you going to stay glued to the 24 hour news channels?
So let me ask you, how is the poll a “dead heat” when Romney is winning independents by a whopping 22 points?
Washington (CNN) – It’s all tied up, according to a new national poll released two days before the presidential election.
And the CNN/ORC International survey not only indicates a dead heat in the race for the White House, but also on almost every major indicator of President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney that was tested in the poll.
So let us examine the internals of the poll:
A total of 1,010 adults were interviewed by telephone nationwide by live interviewers calling both landline and cell phones. All respondents were asked questions concerning basic demographics, and the entire sample was weighted to reflect national Census figures for gender, race, age, education, region of country, telephone usage and whether respondents own or rent their homes.
Registered voters were asked questions about their likelihood of voting, past voting behavior, and interest in the campaign; based on answers to those questions, 693 respondents were classified as likely voters. Respondents who reported that they had already cast an absentee ballot or voted early were automatically classified as likely voters. Among those likely voters, 41% described themselves as Democrats, 29% described themselves as Independents, and 30% described themselves as Republicans.
They over-sampled Democrats by 11%. Keep in mind that in this country self described conservatives outnumber self described liberals by almost two to one. There is no way that this was an accident. If I had turned this poll in as a classroom assignment in a political science or communications class it would be rejected and I would be told to do it right if I wanted a decent grade.
UPDATE – Dick Morris weighs in: